Los Angeles Dodgers righty Tony Gonsolin is having an outstanding 2022 season.
The 28-year-old looked very promising over his first three MLB seasons, but he has taken his game to the next level this year.
As things stand now, Gonsolin is 9-0 on the season with a sparkling 1.58 ERA.
Tony Gonsolin of the @Dodgers is 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA this year after his no-decision tonight.
He will be the first MLB starting pitcher to enter July with a 9-0 or better record and an ERA under 1.60 (since ERA became an official stat in both leagues in 1913).
— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) June 27, 2022
Now, it’s no secret that the baseball community cares less about pitcher wins than it once did.
At the end of the day, there are countless other statistics that measure a pitcher’s impact more effectively than wins do.
However, many baseball fans still get excited when a pitcher reaches 20 wins in a single season, and it certainly seems like Gonsolin has a chance to accomplish that feat this year.
Will he get there?
Let’s take a look.
Things Working In Gonsolin’s Favor
When it comes to the idea of Gonsolin winning 20 games, there are a couple of things working in his favor.
His current win pace is one of those things.
The former ninth-round pick has made 14 starts this season, and he’s on schedule to reach 32 starts before the season ends.
If he were to stay healthy the rest of the way and maintain his current win pace, he’d project to finish the season with 20.6 wins, which we can round up to 21.
That’s definitely worth noting.
Tony Gonsolin, Wicked Splitter. 😼 pic.twitter.com/8JR75D8m9r
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 27, 2022
Another thing that’s working in his favor is the fact that he gets to play for a team that has a lethal offense.
The Dodgers lead the majors in OPS (.758) and runs scored per game (5.13), which makes life pretty easy on a guy like Gonsolin.
If Los Angeles continues to light up the scoreboard, it’ll do wonders for Gonsolin’s quest to win 20 games.
Things Working Against Gonsolin
Although Gonsolin has some key factors on his side, there are also a couple of things working against him regarding his chances of earning 20 wins.
One of those things is his FIP.
As impressive as Gonsolin’s 1.58 ERA is, it might not be entirely sustainable.
His FIP, which is currently 3.37, may suggest that luck has been on his side so far this season.
Remember, FIP is sort of like a predictive ERA, so the fact that the difference between Gonsolin’s ERA and FIP is nearly two full runs is definitely hard to overlook.
That’ll be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the season.
Another factor that could get in the way of the hurler’s quest for 20 wins is the Dodgers’ remaining schedule.
According to Power Rankings Guru, Los Angeles has faced the easiest schedule in the majors so far this season.
The rest of the way, the team will have to deal with the 12th-toughest schedule in the big leagues.
That’s a pretty drastic difference, and it means that wins might be a little trickier to come by for Gonsolin.
Time will tell if that ends up becoming a legitimate obstacle for him.
Final Thoughts
Overall, there’s no denying that Gonsolin has put himself in a very good position to win 20 games this season.
But he’s still got a long way to go, and the task is going to get tougher from here on out.
It’ll be very interesting to see how it all unfolds.
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