New York Yankees star Nestor Cortes Jr. is ready to take the mound against the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday afternoon.
It’s Game 5 of the best-of-five Division Series between the Yanks and Guards: the winner moves on, and the loser goes home.
It will be Cortes’ most important start of his career so far.
The left-hander has shown time and time again that he can succeed despite mediocre fastball velocity.
His four-seamer tops at 93-94 mph, yet it’s one of the best fastballs in baseball.
What gives?
Nestor has a nasty fastball.
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Run Value measures the impact of each event based on runners on base, outs, and count.
Negative numbers are positive for pitchers, because it means runs prevented with that pitch.
Cortes’ fastball has prevented 22 runs, second in MLB behind Justin Verlander‘s 24.
How can a pitcher who maxes out at 94 mph have such an effective heater?
Deception, Rhythm Disruption, And The So-Called Rise Effect
It’s a combination of factors.
With 12.8 inches of drop, his fastball drops 20% less than the average fastball, giving it that “rise” appearance.
The ball doesn’t really rise because it’s physically impossible, but the “drop” effect is delayed and makes it hard to hit.
In this case, deception and rise beats his lack of top velocity.
Cortes doesn’t need to throw 98 to have one of the best fastballs in baseball.
He throws his fastball 43.9% of the time, and the pitch has limited hitters to a .157 batting average and a .239 slugging percentage.
Those are elite numbers that show the pitch effectiveness.
Additionally, Cortes likes to mess with hitters’ timing, and just when they relax or laugh about his extended delivery and antics, he uncorks a 94-mph fastball in the zone that throws them off their rhythm.
Cortes knows how to pitch, and is way more than just a thrower.
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