How Robert Williams’ Injury Affects The Celtics

The Boston Celtics were well on their way to finishing the 2021-22 season with the Eastern Conference’s best record, and then an unfortunate injury occurred:

ESPN Sources: Celtics C Robert Williams has suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee and will minimally miss several weeks. Further evaluation today will help provide a timetable. Boston moved into first-place Sunday, and Williams has been immense part of NBA’s best defense.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) March 28, 2022

The league’s best defense suffered a devastating blow to one of the best defensive players in the National Basketball Association.

Boston had been arguably the best — and the hottest — team in the league.

Robert Williams III is one of the main reasons for the team’s tremendous success.

He is averaging 10.0 points and 9.6 rebounds per game and has the league’s best offensive rating and defensive rating, according to Basketball-Reference.

He even led the NBA in the 2020 playoffs with a .742 effective field goal percentage in the bubble at Walt Disney World in Florida.

It is truly an impressive amount of improvement for a player that went 27th overall in 2018.

Williams is in just his fourth NBA season, and hopefully, it is not over.

Also, from a team perspective, the Celtics had won six straight games, heading into Monday’s game at Toronto.

They had scored at least 110 points in each of those victories and 124 or more in the last five contests.

Boston had won five of the aforementioned six games by at least 20 points.

It has been truly a remarkable turnaround for a Celtics team that was almost pronounced dead earlier in the season.

So, how will Williams’ absence affect Ime Udoka‘s squad?

The Celtics Defense Will Not Be The Same Without Williams

Adrian Wojnarowski puts it perfectly on how missing Williams will hurt Boston’s defense:

Williams was injured in Sunday night’s victory — Boston’s 24th in 28 games — and underwent an MRI today. Williams is first among 169 players who’ve defended 500-plus shots as the closest defender, per Second Spectrum tracking. Only Williams has held opponents sub-40 % shooting.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) March 28, 2022

The Celtics separated themselves as the league’s best defense.

It had seemingly been smooth sailing for a team that was firing on all cylinders on offense and defense.

Unfortunately, then, the NBA’s best defender, according to points per shot, went down with an injury:

Lowest Points Per Shot Allowed As Closest Defender*
2021-22

1. Robert Williams III … 0.90
2. Rudy Gobert ………. 0.93
3. I. Hartenstein …….. 0.95
4. Jarrett Allen ………. 0.95
5. Bobby Portis ……… 0.96

*Min. 500 shots defended, 169 qualifiers pic.twitter.com/ZxBOspHDrR

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) March 28, 2022

Thanks to Kirk Goldsberry, we can understand how amazing he has been at preventing offensive players from scoring.

In addition, this metric does not show how many players he has been deterring from even thinking about going into the paint.

In doing so, he has led the defensive charge — with Marcus Smart — to what appears to be the first 50-win Celtics season since 2017-18.

Boston’s last six 50-win seasons have finished in the following ways:

1. 55-27 (2017-18): lost in Eastern Conference Finals
2. 53-29 (2016-17): lost in Eastern Conference Finals
3. 56-26 (2010-11): lost in Eastern Conference Semifinals
4. 50-32 (2009-10): lost in NBA Finals
5. 62-20 (2008-09): lost in Eastern Conference Semifinals
6. 66-16 (2007-08): won NBA Finals

Without Williams, who knows what could happen to the 2021-22 Celtics?

How Will The Celtics Perform In The 2022 Playoffs?

The Celtics are FiveThirtyEight’s projected champion, with the following predictions:

• 33 percent chance at winning the NBA Finals
• 48 percent chance at making the NBA Finals
• Greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs

However, this is for a full-strength Celtics team.

According to the Action Network, the NBA championship odds stack up this way:

1. Suns +300
2. Nets +500
3. Bucks +650
4. Warriors +700
5. Celtics and 76ers +900

That seems to be about right with the uncertainty about Williams.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown also sat out Monday’s contest, the second night of a back-to-back in Toronto.

Can the duo make up for Williams’ absence?

The Celtics stars — and the backups — may not be able to make up for the difference.

It could turn into another unfortunate injury ‘What Could Have Been’ year for the Celtics, just like the 2009 Kevin Garnett-less playoff Celtics.