Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera hit his 500th home run on Sunday, another impressive achievement for an all-timer.
Cabrera, however, is already 38 and his best years are clearly behind him.
It’s a natural thing: Father Time, to this day, remains undefeated.
In 99 games and 406 plate appearances in 2021, Cabrera is slashing .246/.310/.381 with 13 home runs.
He has a wRC+, or weighted Runs Created Plus, of 89.
The wRC+ stat allows us to determine if a player has been above-average (over 100 wRC+) or below-average (lower than 100.)
In this case, Cabrera’s production in 2021 indicates that he is already a below-average hitter.
A Declining Asset
His decline started in 2017: prior to that year, he had at least a 129 wRC+ in every season but his rookie year.
In 2017, he slumped to 92, and has been around 100 ever since.
Peak Cabrera was a top-three hitter in baseball, and his prime lasted from 2004 to 2016, an amazing run that included several accolades, a pair of MVP awards, a Triple Crown, four batting crowns, and 11 All-Star games.
The human body can only hold up until a certain point, though, and his decline has already started, a few years ago in fact.
The Tigers surely celebrate the fact that they got Cabrera back in 2008, but at this point, it’s hard to put much faith on his 2022 outlook.
Make no mistake: Cabrera will play in 2022.
And he will likely do it with the Tigers: his contract is untradeable and he has two guaranteed years left on his contract, with two additional vesting options.
Let’s assume he will be in Detroit for at least two more seasons.
His 2022 Playing Time Depends On Many Things
At his current level of production, and given the fact that he plays most of his games from the designated hitter position and is a liability on the field when he occupies first base, he is not particularly valuable at this stage, and that’s problematic for an up-and-coming Tigers team that is much-improved this year (60-66) and intends to contend in 2022.
Cabrera’s playing time will largely depend on whether there is a superior hitter capable of playing first base or at the DH spot.
That’s entirely plausible, since Spencer Torkelson should be a regular next year.
Cabrera could be a fantastic mentor for young Torkelson in 2022.
Spencer Torkelson and Miguel Cabrera next year pic.twitter.com/ugpsnTlkxH
— Devin (@Dev_ATX) May 16, 2021
Cabrera will still get his fair share of at-bats, as he is still on the quest for 3,000 hits.
But if he is playing poorly next season, his playing time could collapse once he gets to 3,000 hits (he is currently at 2,955, unlikely to get there this year).
If deployed properly, Cabrera could still be of some use, but that will depend on his health and his physical form.
This season, against left-handed hitters, the slugger is hitting .299/.364/.411.
There is not a whole lot of power in that line, but that’s good for a 116 wRC+, comfortably above-average.
Against righties, Cabrera is at .224/.288/.369, with a 78 wRC+.
That 78 wRC+ equals to production 22 percent worse than the average.
Cabrera could be on the weak side of a platoon, but that’s an expensive (he is due to collect $32 million) player to have on a part-time role.
Miguel Cabrera is owed $64M over 2022-2023.
— Steve Khan (@shk66) August 21, 2021
The Tigers have no choice, though, as they will need to prioritize contention and that probably includes fewer at-bats for Cabrera.
He will still have a role, though.
