The Carson Wentz saga is finally over.
Philadelphia has agreed to trade Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick that could turn into a first, league sources tell @mortreport and me.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 18, 2021
The 2nd round pick can become a 1st round pick if Wentz either:
- Starts 75% of the Colts’ snaps this season or
- Starts 70% of the Colts’ snaps and they make the playoffs
Philly gets compensation well-short of what they initially hoped for.
Early reports stated the Birds were looking for a package similar to what the Detroit Lions got for Matthew Stafford.
The Rams sent two 1st round picks, a 3rd round pick, and Jared Goff to the Lions.
Realistically, Wentz was never going to fetch that much in a trade, especially after the horrific season he just had.
Reserve Judgement Until Next Offseason
The official winners and losers of this trade really can’t be decided until next offseason.
Wentz is surely in-line to be the starter in Indy next year, so barring an injury or another tumultuous campaign, he should easily clear 70% of the team’s snaps.
Whether or not he performs will ultimately determine the winner of this trade.
If Wentz can return to 80-85% of the player he was in 2017, the Colts will have fleeced the Eagles
Indianapolis has one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL.
While Rivers played well last season, his diminishing arm strength hamstrung what the Colts could do offensively.
Replacing the future Hall of Famer with a player of Wentz’s potential would make Indy a super bowl contender.
If that is the case, a 3rd round pick this year and a late-1st round pick next year is a small price to pay for a franchise quarterback.
If Wentz cannot find his old form or continues to regress, the Eagles could come out on top.
As mentioned before, there is little chance Wentz plays less than 75% of the snaps this year.
Another regressive season from Wentz and that 2nd round pick becomes a middle-1st round pick at worst.
A less-than-desirable outcome for a team who would then be without a signal-caller moving forward.
Colts Needed a QB Upgrade
This was mentioned previously, but the Colts needed to find a replacement for Rivers.
With the 21st pick in the draft, they wouldn’t have their choice of top prospects like Wilson, Fields, Lance.
Here’s a few interesting facts. After adding on Carson Wentz’s $25.4M cap hit, the #Colts still have the 4th most cap space, $53.8M, with the 3rd lowest dead cap hit, $255K, and are the youngest roster with an average age of 25.47. Ballard has a ton of money to fill in holes.
— Stephen Reed (@NiceReedSteve) February 19, 2021
But the Cowboys are unlikely to let him go and it would have been a huge gamble by the Colts.
And with Stafford off the board, there were very few options to choose from.
Indianapolis has much of their offense set.
The Colts already had the #9 scoring offense this past season.
A potential upgrade at QB with Wentz could take them into the top 5.
"Carson Wentz will play MVP-type of football again in Indianapolis. I look at the Colts as definitely a Super Bowl contender next year."
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) February 19, 2021
For now, the Colts made the right move in trading for Wentz.
He has shown the potential to be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in the NFL and is back with the coach who originally unlocked his talent.
Surrendering two draft picks is worth the potential payout that comes in Wentz.