Did The Colts Make the Right Move Trading For Carson Wentz?

The Carson Wentz saga is finally over.

On Thursday, the Philadelphia Eagles traded the former #2 overall pick to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2021 3^rd round pick and a 2022 conditional 2^nd round pick.

Philadelphia has agreed to trade Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick that could turn into a first, league sources tell @mortreport and me.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 18, 2021

The 2^nd round pick can become a 1^st round pick if Wentz either:

1. Starts 75% of the Colts’ snaps this season or
2. Starts 70% of the Colts’ snaps and they make the playoffs

Philly gets compensation well-short of what they initially hoped for.

Early reports stated the Birds were looking for a package similar to what the Detroit Lions got for Matthew Stafford.

The Rams sent two 1^st round picks, a 3^rd round pick, and Jared Goff to the Lions.

Realistically, Wentz was never going to fetch that much in a trade, especially after the horrific season he just had.

With Philip Rivers retiring, the Colts and head coach Frank Reich roll the dice on a QB who is just 3 years removed from being an MVP candidate.

Reserve Judgement Until Next Offseason

The official winners and losers of this trade really can’t be decided until next offseason.

Wentz is surely in-line to be the starter in Indy next year, so barring an injury or another tumultuous campaign, he should easily clear 70% of the team’s snaps.

Whether or not he performs will ultimately determine the winner of this trade.

If Wentz can return to 80-85% of the player he was in 2017, the Colts will have fleeced the Eagles

Indianapolis has one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL.

While Rivers played well last season, his diminishing arm strength hamstrung what the Colts could do offensively.

Replacing the future Hall of Famer with a player of Wentz’s potential would make Indy a super bowl contender.

If that is the case, a 3^rd round pick this year and a late-1^st round pick next year is a small price to pay for a franchise quarterback.

If Wentz cannot find his old form or continues to regress, the Eagles could come out on top.

As mentioned before, there is little chance Wentz plays less than 75% of the snaps this year.

Another regressive season from Wentz and that 2^nd round pick becomes a middle-1^st round pick at worst.

A less-than-desirable outcome for a team who would then be without a signal-caller moving forward.

Colts Needed a QB Upgrade

This was mentioned previously, but the Colts needed to find a replacement for Rivers.

Indy had a top-10 offense and defense last season but was 19^th in the NFL in terms of big plays (>25 yards).

With the 21^st pick in the draft, they wouldn’t have their choice of top prospects like Wilson, Fields, Lance.

Armed with the 4^th-most cap space heading into the offseason, they could have waited to see if Dak Prescott hit the open market.

Here’s a few interesting facts. After adding on Carson Wentz’s $25.4M cap hit, the #Colts still have the 4th most cap space, $53.8M, with the 3rd lowest dead cap hit, $255K, and are the youngest roster with an average age of 25.47. Ballard has a ton of money to fill in holes.

— Stephen Reed (@NiceReedSteve) February 19, 2021

But the Cowboys are unlikely to let him go and it would have been a huge gamble by the Colts.

And with Stafford off the board, there were very few options to choose from.

Indianapolis has much of their offense set.

They have a solid offensive line, a talented running back in Jonathan Taylor, and decent receivers in Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal, and Jack Doyle.

And with their ample cap room, they have the potential to sign a top target like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, or Allen Robinson.

The Colts already had the #9 scoring offense this past season.

A potential upgrade at QB with Wentz could take them into the top 5.

"Carson Wentz will play MVP-type of football again in Indianapolis. I look at the Colts as definitely a Super Bowl contender next year."

—@danorlovsky7 pic.twitter.com/FuWvTkRPnC

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) February 19, 2021

For now, the Colts made the right move in trading for Wentz.

He has shown the potential to be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in the NFL and is back with the coach who originally unlocked his talent.

Surrendering two draft picks is worth the potential payout that comes in Wentz.