Entering the fourth season of a decade-long mega contract with the Las Vegas Raiders, head coach Jon Gruden will have a lot of fans focused on the type of job he does this season.
To be fair, he’s probably not on the hot seat since the Davis family had wanted to lure him out of the broadcast booth years before they actually did.
But the magnifying glass will be keyed in on a coach who has not yet delivered a winning record in his second stint with the franchise.
While the Raiders and fans in the relocated Las Vegas black hole would love to win their first Super Bowl since 1983, they would probably settle for making the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 season.
Another day closer to gameday 🎉 pic.twitter.com/djvEI8qb2e
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) August 11, 2021
Even still, Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock have had an ample amount of time to craft the roster in their image.
It’s a good time to take an honest look at the 2021 iteration of the Raiders to see what their chances are of winning a Super Bowl this year.
The Raiders’ Chances Of Winning Super Bowl LVI
An assessment of Las Vegas, and their place in the competitive AFC, would lead most people in the direction that there’s basically no chance they can win the Super Bowl.
Being forced to play against Patrick Mahomes twice a year automatically starts the Raiders with two losses in all likelihood, even though Las Vegas beat them at Arrowhead Stadium last year.
Assuming 10 wins will be good enough to qualify for the final postseason spot in the conference, Las Vegas would need to go 10-5 in games against foes not named the Chiefs.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility they could get there, but their first five games out of the gate are challenging.
They open up the year against the Baltimore Ravens, followed by a tilt with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Raiders will then face the gritty Miami Dolphins, the up-and-coming Los Angeles Chargers, and the Chicago Bears, led by former Raider Khalil Mack.
Looking at the players on the team themselves would give Las Vegas hope they can do damage in 2021.
Can Josh Jacobs stay fresh down the stretch and deliver a 1,500-yard rushing season?
Will highly compensated “reserve” running back Kenyan Drake be a factor out of the backfield and in the flat as a wide receiver?
Is Darren Waller about the take the next step and vie with Travis Kelce and George Kittle as the premier tight end in the game?
How realistic is it for a bulked up Henry Ruggs to present the type of consistent game-changing presence as other burners in the NFL?
Finally, can Derek drive this Carr (excuse the pun) into the end zone to keep Las Vegas relevant in shootouts?
Taking a look at the other side of the ball raises a bunch of other questions as well.
Will the Raiders improve in the takeaway department, after finishing third to last in the NFL last year?
Can their discipline as unit improve to reduce the league’s fifth-highest penalty yardage total in 2020?
"Start off the day right!"
Gus Bradley brought the energy for his first time on the Silver and Black sideline inside @AllegiantStadm. Watch his full Mic'd Up 🎙️ » https://t.co/fwIkscAdNJ pic.twitter.com/D9xX2hrI5a
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) August 11, 2021
Undoubtedly, a few of these unknowns will resolve themselves in the affirmative.
It seems absolutely possible that Waller could dominate the league even more than he has in previous years.
There’s a solid chance Ruggs can figure it out more consistently in his second pro season.
Las Vegas’ safeties, led by Johnathan Abram and new draft pick Trevon Moehrig, could help generate more turnovers this year.
At the end of the day though, Super Bowl contenders usually have two or three things they can bank on throughout the course of the season.
It’s hard to count on quite that many with Las Vegas in 2021.
NEXT: Why Raiders Ultimately Held Onto Derek Carr This Season