There’s never something like a sure thing when it comes to the NFL Draft.
Over and over, we’ve seen so-called ‘can’t miss’ prospects miss, either because of injuries, a bad environment, bad luck, or simply because they weren’t good enough.
Whatever the case, it’s actually been more usual to see teams swing and miss with their first-round picks, especially when it comes to skill position players.
With that in mind, ESPN producer Paul Hembekides calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them, compiling data from all drafts between 2009 and 2019 (via Adam Schefter).
ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.
The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates: pic.twitter.com/mSannLz6OC— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 24, 2024
The list showed that most of the prospects that ‘hit’ were offensive linemen, with centers having a 92% hit rate, followed by OTs (59%), and guards (50%).
Then, things got a little more complicated, with linebackers (48%), quarterbacks (46%), EDGE defenders (44%), and defensive tackles (40%).
Last but not least, we find cornerbacks and running backs tied at 38%, followed by safeties (34%), tight ends (33%), and wide receivers (27%).
The moral of the story seems to be that the only semi-certain thing in the NFL Draft is that offensive linemen are usually well-assessed and evaluated, whereas teams don’t really know how to scout running backs.
As for quarterbacks, having less than half of the first-round picks signing a second contract should be a concern.
Unfortunately, that also makes us think that, as talented as this draft class is, chances are that at least half of the guys won’t be as good as expected.
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