The New York Mets had to break the record for AAV (average annual value) on a contract to bring Max Scherzer to the Big Apple.
Now, they have the best one-two punch in baseball, as he joins a unit that includes Jacob deGrom.
Scherzer will try to lift the Mets and help them make a deep run in the postseason.
The right-hander pitched very well in 2021 between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers, with a 2.46 ERA in 179.1 innings.
The Mets are adding a three-time Cy Young award winner and an eight-time All Star to their roster.
But he doesn’t come without risks.
Here are some of the concerns that the Mets will now have to navigate regarding Scherzer.
3. Age/Decline
Scherzer is still a star, as evidenced by his 2021 stats.
However, even the best of the best reach a point in which their skills start deteriorating.
Scherzer is not the exception.
In fact, despite his dominant numbers, he showed a few slight signs of decline in 2021, even if they are negligible.
For example, his 5.4 Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, represent his lowest total over a full season since 2012, when he was with the Detroit Tigers.
In 2020, he had a 3.74 ERA: it wasn’t a large sample (67.1 innings) but it still can’t be completely ignored.
Theory indicates that he should remain effective throughout his entire deal, but decline is usually unexpected and, for players in Scherzer’s age group, it can be steep.
It’s something to keep an eye on, but so far, he still looks like a good short-term investment.
2. Opt-Out Clause
Scherzer signed a three-year, $130 million contract with the Mets a few weeks ago, before the lockout.
However, there is a catch: if he wants, the pitcher can opt out of the third and final year of his pact and enter the market again.
It’s a concern in the minds of Mets fans because if he exercises the opt-out clause, it will be because he pitched brilliantly and will leave New York in search for another multi-year pact elsewhere.
In that case, while re-signing him is a possibility, seeing him leave is, too.
Opt-out clauses are increasingly common in MLB these days and give the player the option of testing the market again after a certain number of seasons.
What was initially a three-year, $130 million pact could become a two-year deal approaching $90 million if Scherzer’s camp decides he can earn more elsewhere.
Scherzer’s first 2 years in NY will pay him $87M before his opt out #mets
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 29, 2021
1. Injuries
Over the course of his brilliant career, Scherzer has been a model of durability.
In 2009, he started a run of 11 uninterrupted seasons pitching at least 170 frames.
If you consider that his workload during the pandemic 2020 season was a regular, normal one, he has pitched a full slate of innings ever since he became a major league starter.
But it’s normal for 37, 38-year-old pitchers to start breaking down physically.
During the 2019 World Series, Scherzer had to pitch through severe neck pain in Game 7.
He couldn’t even get dressed on his own.
In 2021, he experienced a dead arm phase in the National League Championship Series against the Atlanta Braves.
Little by little, all those innings from earlier in his career may start to affect him, and it would be entirely understandable.
Of course Scherzer's a risk — he's 37 & has a TON of mileage on his arm.
Cohen's not betting $130M on 3 Cy Young caliber seasons. He's betting that Max can contribute to a WS in the next 3 years.
Big difference. #LGM
— JohnnyMets213 (@JohnnyMets213) December 1, 2021
It’s still a concern for Mets fans, though.
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