It’s hard not to admire Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley for his guts on fourth down.
There have been times when he went for it even when conventional wisdom told otherwise.
In their Week 15 game last season against the Kansas City Chiefs, Staley opted to pass up on three makable field goals to chase for touchdowns.
In the end, the Chiefs won in overtime, 34-28.
There was also a time when he went for it on third down on their own 18-yard line against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Despite those shortcomings, the Chargers led the league in fourth-down conversions with 22.
However, those instances took away some victories that could have brought them to the playoffs.
That result might have led Staley to be uncharacteristically conservative during their Thursday Night Football game against the Chiefs.
There have been instances wherein he elected to kick on fourth-and-short instead of going for it.
Unfortunately, even dialing back his aggressiveness cost them the victory.
According to the ESPN model, Brandon Staley cost the Chargers a cumulative 7.3 percentage points of win probability via 4th down errors in the first half.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 16, 2022
ESPN’s Sports Analytics writer Seth Walder tweeted, “According to the ESPN model, Brandon Staley cost the Chargers a cumulative 7.3 percentage points of win probability via 4th down errors in the first half.”
Why Did Staley Suddenly Become Apprehensive On Fourth Down?
His reason is not about being afraid to make mistakes.
Instead, he wanted to give their defense the ability to compete.
There’s no fault in that mindset because the Chargers went on a massive upgrade on that side of the ball during the offseason.
Aside from adding Sebastian Joseph-Day, they also signed Khalil Mack and Kyle Van Noy.
They also acquired cornerback J.C. Jackson on a five-year, $82.5 million deal.
Those players fortified a unit that already had Derwin James and Joey Bosa.
Mack had an impressive debut for the Chargers with three sacks against the Raiders.
Unfortunately, the Chiefs offense did enough, especially in the fourth quarter, to snatch the victory away.
NEXT: NFL Analyst Sums Up The Chargers In A Perfect Way