For years, Trea Turner was an integral part of the Washington Nationals’ lineup and plans.
He made his big league debut in 2015, and was already a star a year later.
He is one of the most dynamic players in the majors, and that talent helped the Nats win the 2019 World Series.
However, in 2021, they decided to go in another direction: they traded Turner and star pitcher Max Scherzer, getting two top-50 prospects in return: catcher Keibert Ruiz and pitcher Josiah Gray.
The Nationals sort of disbanded after the 2019 World Series, especially last year when things went south in the standings.
They let star third baseman Anthony Rendon go after getting the title, choosing to extend pitcher Stephen Strasburg.
In 2021, they traded Scherzer, Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Harrison, and Yan Gomes, dedicating the second half to rebuild.
Many of these moves were made with one thing in mind.
The Franchise’s Objective: Extending Juan Soto
Trading Scherzer made some sense from a competitive standpoint: the Nats weren’t going to compete last year and they wanted to get something in return for the pending free agent.
However, including Turner, a star, in the deal had only one reasonable explanation: Washington may be saving for a potential Juan Soto extension.
Turner, 28, has one season remaining of arbitration eligibility, which will play with the Dodgers in 2022.
He was a prime MVP candidate in 2021, hitting .328/.375/.536 with 28 home runs, 32 stolen bases, 107 runs, and 77 RBI.
He achieved 6.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and was one of the top players in MLB.
Why trade him with 1.5 seasons remaining of control?
He should command a huge deal, and Washington can’t afford to pay both Turner and Soto.
Calculations stipulate that Turner is going to make $19.8 million in 2022, and then will test free agency after the season.
Turner will surely ask for at least $250 million, though.
How Much Is Soto Worth?
Soto is 23 years old, and has been a legitimate MVP candidate since 2019.
He is a unique talent, perhaps the best hitter in the National League at the moment.
He hit .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs, 111 runs, and 95 RBI in 2021, and his career line is a marvelous .301/.432/.550.
No one in the league shows his ability to get on base, and that’s extremely valuable.
He will be arbitration eligible for the first time in 2022, and is projected to make $16.2 million.
That would be a record for a first-time arbitration-eligible player.
Imagine what he will get in the third season of arbitration or when he hits free agency as a 26-year-old outfielder in his prime.
That’s why the Nationals need to extend him now, if possible.
His contract should be absurd and maybe surpass $400 million.
If Juan Soto were to be extended before this season, what might that contract look like?
Here's my best guess, a deal with two opt outs and $400 million over 12 years. The Nationals buy out one year of Soto's free agency with a high incentive ($45M) for him to give up another. pic.twitter.com/i4wFT5fVaA
— Matt Weyrich (@ByMattWeyrich) February 18, 2021
But back to Turner.
Will the Nats regret trading him?
It’s pretty simple: they will if they fail to extend Soto.
If they can extend their star, it could be worth it.
If they don’t sign Soto for the long term, they risk losing both he and Turner, forcing them to take advantage of Soto’s remaining three years with the team and contend without a proper foundation.
The front office and owners have a lot of free money. You didn’t sign Harper/Rendon, trade away Turner to let Juan Soto not be the true franchise player. He should get an extension by Christmas
— NatsApologist (@NatsApologist) July 30, 2021
Trading Turner hurt, but if the team can make sure their current star stays well beyond this decade, it would have been a worthwhile move.
NEXT: Could Juan Soto Get A $400 Million Deal?
Gj says
Guess what? They aren’t going to sign Soto either.