However, some spotty recent play currently has them in danger of losing what they worked so hard to achieve during the whole year.
By now, it’s clear that the 83-70 Phillies won’t win the NL East: both the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are 97-58.
They have, however, the third and final Wild Card spot.
Even though the San Francisco Giants aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, they are all but out at this point.
The only real threat the Phillies are going to face from now to the end of the regular season will be the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee is 82-72, 1.5 games behind the Phils.
Here are the Phillies’ hypothetical rest-of-the-season record in final nine games vs. what Milwaukee would need to pass them:
Phillies record in final 9 games VS what Milwaukee would need to pass them
Phi 9-0/ Mil —
Phi 8-1/ Mil —
Phi 7-2/ Mil —
Phi 6-3/ Mil 8-0
Phi 5-4/ Mil 7-1
Phi 4-5/ Mil 6-2
Phi 3-6/ Mil 5-3
Phi 2-7/ Mil 4-4
Phi 1-8/ Mil 3-5
Phi 0-9/ Mil 2-6
— Explaining The Phillies (@ExplainingPhils) September 28, 2022
The Phillies Still Control Their Own Fate
The most important takeaway is that the Phillies still control their own destiny.
If they win at least seven of their remaining nine games, the Brewers won’t be able to pass them in the Wild Card standings.
If, however, they win six or fewer, Philadelphia’s presence in the playoffs would depend on how the Brewers fare in the stretch run.
If the Phillies go 5-4 in their last nine games, they would force the Brewers to go 7-1.
Basically, the Phillies should shoot for taking at least seven of their remaining nine games.
That way, they will control their destiny.
If they can’t do it, going 6-3 (which is very realistic, too) would force Milwaukee to go 8-0 in their remaining games.