As of Monday morning, the Minnesota Twins have been perhaps the biggest disappointment among all 30 MLB teams in 2021.
Surrounded by big expectations, the Twins are currently in last place of the American League Central Division with a 17-29 record.
That’s a worse record than teams such as the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers, which is saying a lot.
The Twins have advanced to the postseason in the last few years and boast a talented roster, which is why the inauspicious start is quite surprising.
Yet, it would be foolish to count them out of the running for a playoff spot in late May, with more than four months of regular season remaining.
Here is why you shouldn’t leave them for dead yet.
3. Buxton and Maeda Will be Back Soon
With a .370/.408/.772 line, nine homers, five stolen bases and stellar defense in center field, Byron Buxton has been far and away the Twins’ best player in the early going.
He already has 2.5 Wins Above Replacement, a stat created to measure a player’s contributions to the team judging the areas in which he can make an impact: batting, fielding, and baserunning.
Players who are currently 90th percentile or better in both hard-hit rate & Sprint Speed:
SHOHEI OHTANI: 90th pctile HH%, 95th pctile SS
Mike Trout: 92nd pctile HH%, 97th pctile SS
Ronald Acuña Jr: 98th pctile HH%, 97th pctile SS
Byron Buxton: 100th pctile HH%, 99th pctile SS
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) May 19, 2021
The second-ranked position player in the Twins, Nelson Cruz, has 0.9.
The most amazing part is that Buxton has done this while spending the last couple of weeks on the injured list (WAR is a counting stat).
He is currently nursing a grade 2 hip strain that has him on the shelf since May 6.
He is not particularly close to returning, but should be back by June if things go right.
If that’s the case, it’s more than enough time for the Twins to mount a comeback in the standings with their best player on the field.
Meanwhile, Minnesota also lost its ace, Kenta Maeda, last week to a right adductor strain.
Unlike Buxton, Maeda wasn’t really performing well (5.27 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP).
However, he was an absolute workhorse last year, with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
If anything, he can use the time off to rediscover his form.
2. The Youth Movement
Minnesota’s best hitter may be old (Cruz), but there is plenty of help on the way from the farm system.
Alex Kirilloff, with four homers and a .491 slugging percentage, is already contributing, while fellow outfield prospect Trevor Larnach is also with the team.
Other young hitters, such as catcher Ryan Jeffers, should help soon as well.
Pitchers Randy Dobnak and Jhoan Duran are also in position to be contributors to a potential turnaround, with the former already an important part of the pitching staff since last year.
1. The Back of the Bullpen Should Find its Groove Soon
The Twins have three relievers with closing experience in the back of their bullpen.
However, it just hasn’t been their year to this point.
Twins' bullpen has combined for -2.97 Win Probability Added in 32 games.
That's a -15.03 WPA pace for 162 games.
The worst bullpen WPA in Twins history is -5.87.
The worst bullpen WPA in baseball history is -10.94.
What happened to the Twins' bullpen?! https://t.co/75pBpWg8B7
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) May 9, 2021
Alex Colome was a late signing, and so far, has an ugly 4.96 ERA.
Taylor Rogers is a fantastic left-hander with a history of dominance, but he has blown a couple of saves this season.
Hansel Robles (3.20 ERA) also failed to secure a game last weekend by allowing a game-tying run in the ninth on Sunday.
Each and every one of those options should be fine moving forward as long as they are healthy, and right now, that is the case.
When they get their respective seasons on track, the Twins will be much more trustworthy with a late lead.
