The San Diego Padres held the second Wild Card spot in the National League for much of the season, but that’s not the case anymore.
As of right now, they would be out of the playoffs because the Cincinnati Reds (71-61) have a better record than the 69-62 Friars.
There are three main reasons why the Padres may now miss the 2021 postseason.
I’d say our odds are less than 50-50 for playoff spot all things considered: strength of schedule, starting pitching, Tatis shoulder, etc. We’ve sunk low quickly. Can still turn it around but…
— Scott has always loved Luis Perdomo (@flashmanoly) August 7, 2021
3. Injuries
It’s not a secret that the Padres have been hit hard by injuries this season.
Their biggest star, Fernando Tatis Jr., has lost considerable playing time and is basically playing on borrowed time given the nature of his injury (a dislocated shoulder).
Dinelson Lamet has been plagued by elbow woes all season, Chris Paddack has also lost time, and Adrian Morejon is out for the year.
Mike Clevinger is also lost for the season, and Keone Kela, Daniel Hudson, Drew Pomeranz (also out for the year), Matt Strahm, Dan Altavilla, and others are on the shelf, too.
Trent Grisham lots a fair share of playing time due to injury at one point, too, as did catcher Austin Nola.
It has been rough in San Diego at times with physical ailments.
Their rest of the season hopes will largely depend on the health of Tatis’ shoulder, though.
2. Underperforming Offensive Stars
Other than Tatis and Jake Cronenworth, more was expected from lots of San Diego’s hitters.
Manny Machado (.273/.343/.480, 22 homers) has been good, but not great.
We can say the same about Grisham (.253/.343/.436, 13 home runs, 11 stolen bases) and Wil Myers (.260/.345/.438, 15 dingers).
Tommy Pham has been respectable, but Nola and Ha-Seong Kim have been underwhelming.
Adam Frazier, the team’s marquee trade-deadline addition, has been horrible in a Padres uniform.
All in all, the Padres offense is barely a top-10 unit, and some would say even middle-of-the-pack.
The lineup as a whole is not that good if we take away Tatis.
Those players need to step up their game, especially stars with proven track records of past production such as Pham, Machado, and Myers.
1. Blake Snell – Larry Rothschild
Blake Snell has been vastly improved in August, with only seven earned runs allowed in his last five starts.
However, he was extremely inconsistent before that: his season ERA is an underwhelming 4.58 and his walks per nine innings rate is 5.13 (he has had severe issues throwing strikes).
The Padres had to surrender Luis Patino to get Snell, and so far, he hasn’t delivered.
He may be starting to turn around his season, and there may be time for the Padres to re-take their Wild Card spot.
However, there is no denying that Snell deserves some of the blame for their struggles to stay in the race with the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Part of the problem can also be attributed to former pitching coach Larry Rothschild.
He has already been fired, but the damage has been done.
He wasn’t part of the problem, per se, but he also wasn’t part of the solution.
Since the Larry Rothschild dismissal:
Blake Snell: 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
Joe Musgrove: CG, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K— Nick Lee (@NickLee51) August 28, 2021
Rothschild has tons of experience, but he isn’t into analytics as much as other data-driven coaches in the game.
He didn’t quite have a similar impact on his staff as, say, Matt Blake on the New York Yankees or Ethan Katz on the Chicago White Sox.
With the human resources they have, San Diego’s staff should be a lot better than it has been in 2021.
They are ninth in both runs allowed per game (4.1) and hits allowed per game (7.8).
NEXT: Adam Frazier Hasn’t Moved The Needle For Padres