There’s no shortage of numbers in the NFL and they even have Next Gen Stats to make a deep dive on what makes the great players perform better than their peers.
Just like in any other sport, statistics are important in football to gauge what players are doing well and identify possible room for improvement.
The potential to compile more stats is prevalent nowadays thanks to available technology.
That’s why the league and each of the teams can make conclusions from results on every down, distance, situation, or quarter.
In line with this thought, NBC Sports’ Warren Sharp shared an interesting stat about second down.
2nd down run rate after an incompletion*
1. NYG – 70%
2. DET – 66%
3. TEN – 65%
4. WAS, MIN, CHI – 64%
7. DEN – 50%
8. DAL – 47%
9. PIT – 46%
10. ATL – 45%
27. GB, LAR, NE – 25%
28. SF – 24%
29. ARI – 22%
30. KC – 21%
31. CIN – 18%
32. TB – 11%
*first half of games
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 13, 2022
Sharp revealed the run rates on second down following an incompletion.
Unsurprisingly, teams like the New York Giants and Detroit Lions topped the list at 70 and 66 percent, respectively.
Unfortunately, they are fooling no one with the run and end up getting third-and-long situations.
They need to be more creative with their play-calling to rack up more victories.
But on the other hand, teams who made it to the playoffs are also in the top ten of that list.
Understandably, the Tennessee Titans are there because of Derrick Henry.
After an incompletion on first down, they bet on these talented running backs to move the chains.
Running On Second-And-Long Might Not Be An Intelligent Decision
Playing the percentages, even defenses know that their opponents will likely attempt a run on second down.
After all, they still have third down to make a pass to cover the yards needed for another first down.
But why make football tougher with a third-and-long when you can craft a sequence that will fool defenders on second down?
Using the run game is possible, but teams must add some wrinkles into the formation to avoid disaster.