Once upon a time, the MLB universe put a lot of weight in the “Wins” stat when evaluating pitchers around the league.
Evaluators emphasized their ability to overcome all obstacles and deliver the ultimate objective of the game: winning it.
However, as more stats and concepts have been brought into the game, pitching wins have lost some value, and rightfully so.
A pitcher can only control the impact of his contributions until the moment the ball leaves his hand.
After that, other factors come into play: defense, ballpark, luck, and run support are perhaps the most important.
People came to the realization that it may not be fair to judge a pitcher for things he can’t fully control.
Pitching Wins Are Obsolete
Instead, stats like ERA, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), expected FIP, Skill-interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA), Predictive Classified Run Average (pCRA), and others are fair parameters to evaluate pitching performance.
He had an ERA over 4 and received the highest run support of a starting pitcher in baseball. Wins have been proven an obsolete indicator to pitchers success.
— Tom Marro (@Manana_23) February 20, 2021
The game has been changing for a few years now, too.
In the past, managers used to let their starters pitch seven, eight, or nine innings without going to the bullpen.
The starter was viewed as the owner of the game: the manager handed him the ball, and he needed to navigate through anything.
In today’s game, however, bullpens are extremely important on winning teams, and they earn even more importance come playoff time.
This happens mainly because of two things.
One, the game is faster and harder, and it requires a lot of effort: pitchers usually go all-out and managers are also worried about distributing rest when needed.
Starters, therefore, usually work in a 90-100 pitches range and are usually out of the game in the sixth or seventh frame.
The other reason is because, through the use of analytics and advanced stats, teams discovered that their pitchers lost effectiveness the third time through the order.
It’s only natural: once a hitter has seen you once or twice, he will likely adjust to your speeds, arm slots, and breaking pitches.
The chances of hitters doing damage dramatically increase the third time through the order.
As a result, skippers are wary of letting their starters be seen three times through the opposing team’s lineup.
No MLB Pitcher Will Come Close To 20 Wins In 2021
Quick hooks and fewer innings are a constant these days.
Because of that, no MLB pitcher is likely to reach 20 wins in the 2021 season.
We are about to start September, and no one is particularly close to the milestone.
In the American League, Gerrit Cole leads with 13 wins, while Chris Bassitt and Hyun Jin Ryu are second with 12.
In the National League, Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Julio Urias and Chicago Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks are tops with 14, followed closely by Walker Buehler and Adam Wainwright, with 13 each.
Julio Urias is now tied for the MLB lead in Wins with 14
— Sam Scherer (@sam_scherer99) August 25, 2021
These pitchers (except for Bassitt, who is out for the season with multiple face fractures) will have between four and six starts left in the regular season.
The odds of any of them, or others, making it to 20 are slim at best.
The fact that the wins leader in each league may only get to 15 or 16 wins is the perfect proof of changing times around MLB.
NEXT: Grading Chris Sale’s Impact With Red Sox Since Return
Anonymous says
Guess y’all had no idea what you were talking about in August. Maybe you should write another article where you praise URIAS for doing what y’all said had no chance of happening. Give him his due. And RESPECT!
Jim says
Exactly. Urias 20 wins. Now, give him his due respect, please “experts.”
Carfino says
Not a chance. The arrogance of pundits knows no bounds
Carfino says
Looks like Mr. Chavez is a bit clueless about pitchers. My guess he like many of the other “experts” are pushing pitchers like Burnes (11-5) , Wheeler (14-10) or Wainwright (17-7) over Urias who is the only logical Cy Young winner with his unmatched 20-3 record with a sub 3.0 era.