Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, lets us have a better understanding about a player’s contributions to his team and his worth relative to the replacement-level player.
It feeds from offensive, defensive, and baserunning contributions to give us a single number.
It is generally understood that the best players in MLB are the ones who achieve a higher WAR output.
When we see WAR projections for the 2023 season, San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto usually leads the pack.
It means that no player in baseball is expected to help his team more than him.
“Highest projected 2023 WAR, position players (Steamer via Fangraphs): Juan Soto, 7.1, Aaron Judge, 6.9, Julio Rodríguez, 5.9, Mookie Betts, 5.9, Adley Rutschman, 5.6, Mike Trout, 5.6,” Codify Baseball tweeted.
Highest projected 2023 WAR,
position players (Steamer via Fangraphs):Juan Soto, 7.1
Aaron Judge, 6.9
Julio Rodríguez, 5.9
Mookie Betts, 5.9
Adley Rutschman, 5.6
Mike Trout, 5.6 pic.twitter.com/sSplxuy3U1— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 16, 2023
Soto had a somewhat disappointing season in 2022, with a .853 OPS and 3.8 WAR.
That would be most players’ best campaign, which tells you everything you need to know about expectations tied to Soto.
Because of age (he is 24, younger than some prospects) and past performance, however, projection systems love his outlook for 2023.
Steamer, in particular, is very optimistic on most players, and they are definitely showing it with Soto.
That particular projection is not at all crazy: Soto struggled for a large portion of 2022, hitting adversity for the first time in his brilliant career.
Now, he surely has studied his swing and what he did wrong, and correct it in 2023.
He has reached the 7-WAR threshold in the past (in 2021) and is certainly capable of doing it again as he enters his prime.
What a special player.
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