If you are an MLB pitcher and are facing San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto, you better throw a first-pitch strike.
If you don’t, the odds of him reaching base is basically better than 50/50.
Yup, that’s right, according to our friends at Codify Baseball.
Juan Soto's career OBP when the first pitch is a ball is .502. pic.twitter.com/YPPIpHTBhU
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 15, 2023
In MLB, the count is an underrated aspect of the game.
Many of the trends we see and don’t see in baseball are directly related to the count.
It’s not the same thing to have a hitter 1-2 than falling behind 2-1 or 3-1.
Each time a hitter sees a ball, his odds of reaching base go up.
When the batter is Soto, those odds go way up.
It’s what happens when you don’t throw strikes against a generational hitter.
The problem, for hurlers, is that throwing strikes to him is also very, very dangerous.
If you miss your spot, the ball might be over the fence in a hurry.
Soto has a career .424 OBP, yes, but he also has hit 125 home runs and he is not even 25 years old.
In 2022, he had a “down” season with the Washington Nationals and the Padres.
That “down season” returned 27 home runs, 135 walks, and a 145 wRC+.
At his best, though, he is capable of finishing with a 1.000 OPS.
He has done it.
The 2023 campaign represents a challenge for him: he will need to prove he can return to his MVP-caliber form.
If he can do that, he will become a very, very rich man when it’s his turn to reach free agency after the 2024 campaign.
NEXT: MLB World Reacts To The Manny Machado News
