The good news is that the NFL Draft is less than two weeks away.
Finally, the speculation of who gets drafted by whom and when will be over.
Alas, that day is not yet here so it is time to focus on one of the fab five quarterbacks in this draft.
The fab five include:
- Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
- Zach Wilson, BYU
- Justin Fields, Ohio State
- Mac Jones, Alabama
- Trey Lance, North Dakota State
The first four quarterbacks on this list are projected to go in the top five of the draft.
That leaves Trey Lance as likely going in the top 10, but he is more difficult to project.
In fact, Trey Lance is the most difficult quarterback projection ever, and it has nothing to do with his skills.
What does Trey Lance bring to the table?
Plenty. pic.twitter.com/oQl788hnWi
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) April 15, 2021
Here’s why it is so hard to figure out where Trey Lance goes.
Not Enough Tape On Him
Scouts, draft analysts, and NFL coaches pour over tape of the potential draft picks NCAA games.
20-year-old Trey Lance has only played in 19 games, and one of those was an exhibition.
He played in 2 games during the 2018 season, 16 games in 2019, and 1 exhibition in 2020 because the rest of the season was cancelled due to COVID-19.
His quarterback peers in the draft have played in a minimum of 30 games with Trevor Lawrence playing in 40.
The lack of tape makes it difficult for scouts and analysts to measure Lance’s talent, evaluate his mechanics, or understand his tendencies.
Some would argue that Lance should have played another NCAA season, perhaps even at a higher profile school.
Mel Kiper on his draft podcast if he were giving QB Trey Lance advice he should have transferred from North Dakota State to Ohio State. If he had transferred to OSU he would be the #1 pick next year.
— jbook™ (@jbook37) March 5, 2021
Not Big Stats
Fewer games will lead to fewer stats.
However, the games Lance did play (including the exhibition), he completed 208 passes on 318 attempts.
That means he averaged approximately 16 passing attempts per game.
Compared to Lawrence who averaged 29 attempts per game, Lance definitely has a smaller sample size for scouts to look at.
Lance threw 30 touchdowns to just 1 interception; the interception came in the exhibition game.
Only One Complete Season
Lance had one complete season; that was in 2019.
To his credit, it was a great season.
He won both the Walter Payton Award and the Jerry Rice Award in 2019.
Lance threw 28 touchdowns without tossing a single interception.
However, it leads some to wonder if he is a one-hit wonder.
Lance appears to have the tools and will be a first-round draft pick, but he is a bigger risk than the other four quarterbacks in his draft class who had longer careers.
Their work is more well known.
Even they could be busts in the NFL, no one really knows.
Trey Lance has proved to be a challenge, and in less than two weeks we will find out how NFL teams viewed him.
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