Up until the night before the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic were projected to take Jabari Smith Jr. with the first overall pick.
Even the morning of, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported the top three picks seemed set.
Smith to the Magic, Chet Holmgren to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Paolo Banchero to the Houston Rockets.
As team boards finalize today, the 1-2-3 of the NBA Draft is increasingly firm, per sources: Jabari Smith to Orlando, Chet Holmgren to Oklahoma City and Paolo Banchero to Houston.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2022
But minutes before the draft began, everything shifted.
Suddenly, Banchero was widely reported to be the target at number one.
And that is exactly what happened, with the Orlando Magic taking the 6-foot-10 power forward first overall.
It was a shocking selection given the level of secrecy the pick had held.
In the modern-day era, draft picks are almost always known ahead of time.
But did the Magic make the right call taking the Duke prospect?
After all, there was a reason Smith was projected to go #1.
Banchero Vs. Smith
There was a consensus before the draft that three prospects made up the top tier.
Smith, Holmgren, and Banchero separated themselves from the pack, with each player containing immense upside to develop into a future star.
And while Holmgren was occasionally mocked to the Magic at one, it came down to Banchero or Smith.
Rockets had a simple plan with the No. 3 pick: Take the last of the three top-tier players left on the board. It was expected to be Paolo Banchero. It ended up being Jabari Smith Jr., whose shooting and defensive versatility should pair well with Jalen Green.
— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) June 24, 2022
Both players had great seasons at their respective colleges.
Banchero averaged 17.2 points and 7.8 rebounds across 33 minutes per game while shooting 48% from the field and 34% from three.
Smith averaged 16.9 points and 7.4 rebounds across 29 minutes per game while shooting 43% from the field and 42% from three.
Smith was seen as the prospect with a bit of a higher ceiling.
He was one of the best big-man shooters in college as his 42% mark from three came on 5.5 attempts per game.
While his self-creation game needs work, he will be able to stretch the floor effectively.
His size, length, and competitiveness also project him as a potentially elite defender who can switch across multiple positions.
Banchero, on the other hand, seems like the more NBA-ready prospect.
His 6-foot-10, 250-pound frame will make him a matchup nightmare from day one.
Size and strength will allow him to overpower smaller players while his footwork and handle let him attack bigger players off the dribble or in the post.
Banchero also displayed some playmaking chops while at Duke, hinting at the potential for him to lead an offense.
Paolo has lots of work to do as a defender, but if his elite offensive game translates, he should be an All-Star-caliber forward.
Either player in a vacuum was a good selection as the first overall pick.
Magic Roster Fit
The top players in the draft class fit perfectly with Orlando’s team needs.
Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, and RJ Hampton comprise a young backcourt with plenty of promise.
Terrence Ross, Franz Wagner, Chuma Okeke, Jonathan Isaac, and Banchero are all versatile wings/forwards who can play multiple positions.
Wendell Carter Jr. had somewhat of a breakout year at the center position.
What the Magic lacked was a true scoring threat out of the frontcourt.
Anthony can heat up at a moment’s notice, but he is slightly undersized and inefficient.
Banchero gives them that potentially elite scoring threat at the forward position.
Orlando Magic fans you just got a star‼️‼️pic.twitter.com/zvGoXJIUDG
— Blue Devils (@BlueDevils) June 24, 2022
A player who can go get his own shot or create one for a teammate.
The Magic are also set up to hide some of Banchero’s defensive liabilities.
Carter is a solid defensive anchor in the paint around the rim.
Wagner is a versatile defender who provided superb defense all season.
And Isaac, Okeke, and Suggs are all net-positive defenders.
Smith may have a higher long-term ceiling.
His two-way play is highly coveted in the modern NBA.
But Banchero seemingly has the higher floor and should excel at offense almost immediately.
And that day-one contribution will be valued on a team that could push for a playoff spot soon.
Given both players were so tightly rated, Banchero’s fit with the rest of the Magic made this the right call.
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