A little more than a month and a half of MLB games have already been played this year, enough sample to make some conclusions.
At this point, we are starting to see which teams are real contenders, and which ones are already showing their weaknesses.
These three organizations look, or may have looked, like contenders at some point, but they are most likely pretenders.
3. Cleveland Guardians
For a brief time during the season’s first week, the Cleveland Guardians looked capable of challenging for the AL Central title.
But the season is 162 games long for a reason.
The 18-22 Guardians aren’t bad, but they don’t seem capable of hanging with the Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox.
Some of the early-season stars, such as Steven Kwan and Owen Miller, have cooled off in recent games.
Kwan’s line is already down to .257/.358/.354 with one home run, while Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes, and other important pieces have struggled so far.
Shane Bieber‘s velocity is down, and Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac have been extremely inconsistent.
At least Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor haven’t stopped hitting.
Cleveland has several good things going on roster-wise, and they have some enticing prospects, but 2022 doesn’t look like their year.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
In the offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies spent a lot of money and resources to bring in some help for slugger Bryce Harper.
They signed outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, and tried to improve their bullpen with the addition of Corey Knebel.
So far, they are third in the NL East division with a 20-24 record, eight games behind the New York Mets for the first spot.
They may make the playoffs thanks to the new expanded format, but with several teams looking better than them in the NL (the St. Louis Cardinals, the San Diego Padres, the San Francisco Giants, and even the Arizona Diamondbacks), they are not a lock to advance.
The Phillies still have many of the problems they had last season: a bad bullpen (their 4.23 ERA is the eighth worst in MLB) and atrocious defense.
They have some good hitters and the reigning MVP, but the Phillies are looking like early-season pretenders.
The reality for the Phillies: The only real move is to fire Girardi. The thing with that is firing the manager will do nothing for this team other than bullpen management because it’s a flawed roster. But at the same time it would show the fan base that the team actually cares.
— #FireGirardi (@_Philly_Talk) May 26, 2022
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
Who would have thought the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were 52-110 last season, would have a positive record after 45 games?
Yet here they are, at 23-22, better than the Colorado Rockies, the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies, the Chicago Cubs, and many other clubs.
They do seem much improved this season compared to last: they have rookie sensation Alek Thomas, Christian Walker and Daulton Varsho are hitting for power, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are leading the rotation, and there have been a couple of unexpected bullpen contributors.
But their odds of finishing 2022 with a positive record are slim.
They play too many games with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Diego Padres, and the San Francisco Giants, three teams that are unquestionably better than them.
The D-Backs are better than their 2021 version, but they probably won’t make it to October.
Definitely Bad:
Orioles, Royals, Athletics, Nationals, Pirates, RedsProbably Bad but people don't want to admit it yet:
Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Cubs, RockiesPretenders that could go either way:
Diamondbacks, Marlins, MarinersWho knows?
Phillies, Braves, Guardians— Sam in San Diego (@SammyGSanDiego) May 17, 2022
They do have an exciting future, however.
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